Odds & Prediction Iga Swiatek vs Ons Jabeur

Iga Swiatek celebrates after winning a tennis match.

Iga Swiatek of Poland celebrates after the final match against Annet Kontaveit of Estonia at the Qatar Open WTA tennis tournament in Doha, Qatar, Saturday, February 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Hussein Sayed)

  • Two of the best clay court players, Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur, met in the Rome final
  • Swiatek has 27 straight wins; Jabeur to 11. Something has to be given
  • The world number 1 is a heavy favorite; we break it down and find the value

Will Iga Swiatek ever lose a tennis match?

Chances say it’s unlikely to be the Italian Open women’s singles final.

Swiatek vs Jabeur odds

Player Spread money line Total
[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) -5.5 (-118) -560 O 19.5 (+100)
[9] Jabeur Ounces (TUN) +5.5 (-106) +410 U 19.5 (-124)

Odds on May 14 at Barstool Sportsbook

Swiatek are heavy favorites against Ons Jabeur, although Tunisia have won their last two meetings.

But 2021 is not 2022; Swiatek is like an unstoppable powerhouse at the moment, and is already a heavy favorite at the French Open to win the upcoming Grand Slam, one of the biggest tennis events of the year.

Swiatek rules Sabalenka

You’d expect a WTA 1000 semifinal between the No. 1 and No. 3 will be a burner.

But with Swiatek in full confidence and Sabalenka on opposite ends of the spectrum, it’s a mismatch.

Swiatek leads 6-1, 6-2 in 79 dominant minutes.

Devastating stats? Sabalenka won just 29 percent (9-of-31) points on her first serve. He actually did better on his second serve and limited his collateral double-fault damage to three.

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So it’s hard to say exactly what level Swiatek is. He played great tennis.

But he was never challenged or pressured.

Head-to-Head Swiatek vs Jabeur

20 (30 May 2001) Age 27 (August 28, 1994)
Warsaw, Poland Place of birth Ksar el Helar, Tunisia
5-9 Tall 5-6
1 Grand Slam Career Titles
7 WTA Singles Career Degrees 2
Number 1 (4 April 2022) Career High Rank Number 7 (1 November 2021)
number 1 Current rating number 7
$8,517,786 Career Prize Money $5,813,092
36-3 2022 Win/Lose Record 25-7
1 Head to Head Career 2

Another Comeback Win for Jabeur

Jabeur lost 6-1, 5-2 against Maria Sakkari in the quarter-finals. The Greek player served for the match twice.

However, Jabeur capitalized on his opponent’s fall to run 11 of the last 12 games to stutter to the semifinals.

On Saturday, he had another battle on his hands.

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Daria Kasatkina’s opponent has match points. But in the end, Jabeur won again, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5.

He looked tired, and his tennis was quite ragged. But somehow he came.

Needs just under two hours of shade in the heat. But it was very tiring both physically and mentally.

Jabeur broke his opponent six times (out of 15 chances). But he himself has also been fouled six times, out of nine chances he has given his Russian opponent.

He is in his second consecutive WTA 1000 tournament final, having won in Madrid last week.

But he won’t be too confident on the tennis side. And he definitely won’t be fresh on the physical side.

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History of Swiatek vs Jabeur . Match

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Cincinnati (R32) Loud outdoors 6-3, 6-3 Jabeur
2021 Wimbledon (R16) Grass 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 Jabeur
2019 Washington, DC (R32) Loud outdoors 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 Swiatek

Much is at stake for Swiatek and Jabeur

After Swiatek took the “Sunshine Double” earlier in the year, winning titles at Indian Wells and Miami, it was Jabeur’s turn to attempt the Madrid-Roma double.

It’s not something that happens often.

Dinara Safina did not win the French Open a few weeks later.

Serena Williams did it.

The first set will be key for Jabeur, who this year was 21-0 when they won the first set.

Swiatek have lost just four first sets in their 27-game streak; he just lost in the second set… once.

But given how likely Jabeur is at this point – he has played most of the day’s matches in the heat, and it was a tough one – the first set will be more important to him than to Swiatek.

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So we expect the first set to be close. So there are some interesting prop bets – like +163 for the first set to pass 9.5 games.

But if Jabeur lost it, the wind would come out of his sails. And thinking about how much effort it would take to win two sets in a row against undefeated Swiatek would likely be too much to handle realistically. So hopefully the second set will be pretty quick.

Swiatek is also likely to beat the spread (+118 at -5.5 games).

Best Bet: Swiatek in Two Sets (-175)

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Stephanie Myles

Sports Writer

Sports Writer


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